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Reading Topic #7297

Surfer Surfer rating
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4512 posts, 46 feedbacks, 82 points		 04-Aug-10, 10:24 AM (PST)
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"Murder Rate in PI Markedly Lower Than Thailand Or US"
 
Many here go on about how safe they think Thailand (or Oakland) is compared to the PI. If I say anything along those lines I get flamed for PURPORTEDLY harboring "anti Thai bias" (which is total crap). So let's let the NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.

While petty theft may be more common in the PI, homicide is the biggie that really ruins a vacation. And the FACTS are that the homicide rate per capita appears to be about 35% lower in the PI (3.82 per 100K) than in the US as a whole (5.4). And does anybody doubt that Oakland's homicide rate is WAY ABOVE THE NATIONAL AVERAGE?

And Thailand? More than double the PI rate and almost 50% higher than the US at 7.92.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate


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Roger
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1715 posts		 04-Aug-10, 08:01 PM (PST)
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1. "Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #0
 
   "Surfer posits that Phuket is safe for farang. He may have thought so, but no place is ever safe, safety is relative. There have been farangs murdered in Phuket as elsewhere in Thailand and Southeast Asia, with the occasional spectacular case, for example, the murder of Hanna Charlotta Backlund in 2008.

It is very difficult to obtain reliable statistics for murder rates in different countries, partly because different reporting methods are used, partly because not all countries are happy to let the world see the real level of crime in their country. Furthermore, reported rates are often contradictory, as, for example, rates reported by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, where rates reported by criminal justice do not agree with rates reported by public health authorities.

That said, the following rates are somewhat indicative. I have not cited sources, because I have averaged over several. A few minutes with google will turn up yet more and different results.

By far the highest rates for murder are reported for Africa and Central America: murder rates are in the range 20-60 or more per 100K.

Dominican Republic and Brazil are around 25 per 100K.

Mexico is about 11 per 100K.

Thailand is about 6-8 per 100K.

Philippines is between 4 and 20 per 100K depending on the source.

Vietnam is 1-4 per 100K.

Singapore is between 0.4 and 1.3 per 100K.

Now for the reality check:

US average is about 6 per 100K.

Among the champions in the US are New Orleans with 50 to 90 per 100K (depends on year and reporting agency), and Washington DC with 31 to 44 per 100K (depends on year and reporting agency).

Oakland is 30 to 44 per 100K (depends on year and reporting agency).

San Francisco is 9 to 14 per 100K (depends on year and reporting agency).

Feel free to draw your own conclusions about which countries are "safe." I personally will take my chances in Phuket or elsewhere in Thailand or anywhere in Southeast Asia over the mean streets of Oakland."

note added: best to be wary of statistics cited on internet, especially those with three significant figures, as in 3.82. See caution above....

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12993 12993 rating
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1163 posts, 2 feedbacks, 4 points		 05-Aug-10, 04:27 AM (PST)
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2. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #1
 
   LAST EDITED ON 05-Aug-10 AT 04:35 AM (PST)
 
I bought a house in Oakland (near but not in Berkeley, because Berkeley had rent control) and raised a child there. Once or twice I studied the OPD web site for crime statistics. Almost all the murders congregate in about a dozen police precincts. They are the same areas where one would cruise the streets for poon. Or, more relevantly, for drugs. I know of two murders in my neighborhood during the course of 18 years. One was acquaintance murder. The other was outside a nice neighborhood bar at closing time, committed on a patron by two of "da people" from a high-crime neighborhood.

In the Philippines, Fields Avenue in Angeles City is one of those bad precincts. So that is the correct standard of comparison.

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INNOUT INNOUT rating
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696 posts, 6 feedbacks, 12 points		 05-Aug-10, 11:20 AM (PST)
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3. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #2
 
   I live in Oakland, and strangely enough I feel safe here. I know there is widespead crime, but I haven't been a victim of anything violent. It probably helps to stay out of the really violent areas, especially at night.

In addition to crime, another thing that we have a lot of is crime-tracking websites. Here are a few of them:

http://oakland.crimespotting.org/

http://www.sfgate.com/maps/oaklandhomicides/

http://gismaps.oaklandnet.com/crimewatch/

Knowing that Oakland has a higher homicide rate than The Philippines makes me even more likely to go there on vacation, but it is the photos from Surfer, Biker, and others that really sold me.

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Fillmorekid Fillmorekid rating
Member since 13-Jan-03
1751 posts, 17 feedbacks, 30 points		 05-Aug-10, 11:51 AM (PST)
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4. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #3
 
   Anyone have the stats for crimes committed against tourists in any of the places being discussed?

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Surfer Surfer rating
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4512 posts, 46 feedbacks, 82 points		 05-Aug-10, 01:50 PM (PST)
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5. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #4
 
Roger posted a link about US Citizens as victims but that is hardly representative (less than 20% of farang in LOS are from US).

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Fillmorekid Fillmorekid rating
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1751 posts, 17 feedbacks, 30 points		 09-Aug-10, 11:37 PM (PST)
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11. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #5
 
   LAST EDITED ON 09-Aug-10 AT 11:39 PM (PST)
 
I guess where I was going was here/this...certain areas in the USA seem to have high rates of violence against tourists, specifically foreign tourists. Florida was ripe with it at one point. Last night a German tourist was killed in San Francisco.

All that said, how many foreign tourists, NOT just Americans, are killed in Thailand or PI? Vs how many tourists are killed here in the USA. Also, if the stats exist, how many crimes of violence/murders are committed "per capita" against tourists in Thailand or PI vs. how many of the same crimes are committed against the citizens of those countries?

*To clarify, just say Thailand and PI each have 100,000 tourists a year, how many are victims, vs how many locals. My personnel feeling is, Thailand and PI are more dangerous for the locals than they are for us.

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Surfer Surfer rating
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4512 posts, 46 feedbacks, 82 points		 10-Aug-10, 05:45 PM (PST)
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12. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #11
 
Completely agree. The German was not targeted but was an innocent bystander. You can beta fair number of the killings of foreigners overseas are the same; crimes against foreigners often attract more media and more police attention so its safer for criminals to prey on locals.

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Fillmorekid Fillmorekid rating
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1751 posts, 17 feedbacks, 30 points		 10-Aug-10, 06:22 PM (PST)
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13. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #12
 
   >Completely agree. The German was not targeted but was an
>innocent bystander. You can beta fair number of the
>killings of foreigners overseas are the same; crimes against
>foreigners often attract more media and more police
>attention so its safer for criminals to prey on locals.


Yeah I read she was just a bystander. But a few years back, a "gang" was operating out side rental car agencies in Florida. They targeted mainly foreigners. So I am just wondering, over all, if it is more dangerous to be a foreigner here or "there."

There was a book published a few years back called "The world's most dangerous places" Or such, and the author basically spelled out the danger in all the hot spots...he then went on to discuss why it was more dangerous to be a young black male in L.A. than to be on holiday in Kusovo.

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Rubberyman
Member since 5-May-06
125 posts, Rate Rubberyman		 06-Aug-10, 03:53 AM (PST)
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6. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #1
 
So, are these tourists? US citizens? Locals? Are you comparing like with like?

Are you drawing any conclusions yourself?

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Roger
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1715 posts		 06-Aug-10, 06:51 AM (PST)
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7. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #6
 
   The May 27 post, repeated at the top of this thread, is murder rate in a given country, that means how many murders are reported in the country....total murders. So most murders will be of locals, since locals are the majority of the population.

There is another thread in which deaths of Americans in foreign countries is reported.

Please note that the murder rate thread talks about murder RATE (murders per hundred thousand people), total numbers of murders would be rate times population of the country.

The American death abroad thread talks about absolute NUMBERS, which are small, as the integrated number of American-person-days in a given country is small.

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Surfer Surfer rating
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4512 posts, 46 feedbacks, 82 points		 06-Aug-10, 12:07 PM (PST)
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8. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #7
 
actually not so small it turns out, at least in the case of the PI. For 2008 there were almost 600,000 US citizen visitors to the PI 19 murders is a very low rate.


South Korea topped the number of arrivals with 611,629 in 2008, up 19.48 percent from the 2007 figure, while the US was second with 578,246 arrivals, up 18.4 percent, the department said in a statement.

http://www.eturbonews.com/7580/philippines-tourist-arrivals-hit-record-314-mln-2008

Thailand's total foreigner arrivals was 12 million for the year, but I have not found how many of those are US citizens.

In sum, unless you do stupid shit you are safer in either country than you are here at home.

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EWYA EWYA rating
Member since 7-Feb-09
176 posts, 1 feedbacks, 2 points		 07-Aug-10, 02:26 PM (PST)
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9. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #1
 
My favorite statistic is that violent deaths are twice as likely to occur in Washington DC when compared to being on active duty in the current war zones. Got to love that one.

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polekeem
Member since 8-Mar-06
28 posts		 08-Aug-10, 12:13 PM (PST)
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10. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #9
 
Born and raised in Oakland. I feel safe in ANY CITY cause if theirs any bad elements I close my eyes and say *Dorthy's Voice Wizard Of OZ* "Theirs No Place Like Home"

Then poof I feel better. Philippines I will see you in Feb.

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ThaistyxSF
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395 posts, 3 feedbacks, -1 points		 16-Aug-10, 02:19 AM (PST)
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14. "RE: Posted on this board on May 27, 2010"
In response to message #10
 
   Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas anymore...

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